Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Putin Pulls Off A Brilliant Strategic Maneuver

The Astute Blogger proposes a theory as to why the Iranian rejection of Russias nuclear offer, and Russias oil cutbacks may have occurred within the same week:
http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2006/01/russias-ukrainian-gas-gambit.html

BBC: Gas row sends shiver through EU -

Russia's decision to cut gas imports to Ukraine is causing dismay across Europe, where supplies in a number of countries have been disrupted. The US has also expressed concern, saying the move raised "serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure".

BBC: Iran rejects Russia nuclear plan -

Iran says its nuclear programme is for purely peaceful purposes Iran has dismissed a proposal that it conduct uranium enrichment in Russia as a way out of an impasse in talks over its controversial nuclear programme. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said it was not logical for any country to entrust its energy security to another state.

This seems WAY TOO too too too TOO coincidental for me.

Russia COULD have postponed this decision, or "stair-stepped" the price increase (to GRADUALLY get Ukraine up to market price), or they could have given Ukraine the same price as Belarus.

INSTEAD, Putin - and Schroeder - decided to cut off Ukraine and create HUGE HEADLINES just after they offered their CLIENT STATE IRAN a supposed nuclesar enrichemtn deal to end the EU3-Iran nuclear stalemete.

This is WAY too convenient for Iran. And SEEMINGLY let's Russia off the hook;

Putin can say, "Heck, we tried!"

Like hell they did.

I am VERY skeptcial of Putin - and his bought-and-paid-for crony Schroeder.

FACT: Putin is selling anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and Iran.
FACT: Putin is helping Iran build their nuclear plants.
And Putin also wants revenge for the Orange Revolution.

This gas shut-off allows Putin to simultaneously screw Ukraine and give his Iranian client's an "out." It's a win-win for Putin.


There's more. Go read the rest.

2 comments:

John Sobieski said...

I read an article that spoke of Putin's miunderstanding of Islam. He believes he can make a Russia/China/Islam alliance. Good luck with that Putin. Those infidels who believe that because Islam is the enemy of 'the West' that they should ally with it are fooling themselves.

I am amazed at how few of the world's infidel leaders know anything significant about Islam and its history. They seem to think 'all that' history, hadiths, suras, in as much the little of 'all that' they know, is history and doesn't apply today. Now, isn't that foolish?

MPH said...

From :

Many are labeling Russia’s pressure on Ukraine to pay market prices for natural gas as “Cold War” tactics. Of course, the Ukrainian government is paying the full price for their anti-Russian rhetoric and pro-Western orientation. Russia is flexing the only muscles she has: natural resources. But, it’s not so much a message to the Ukraine as to the West. And it’s not so much “Cold War” as Realist geo-politics.

Putin quickly realized that Russia only has one card to play in today’s world of growing demand for natural resources. Domestically, this realization became clear with the takeover of the Yukos oil company. Disguised as retribution for legal transgressions, Putin removed the threat of a western-oriented Yukos
by imprisoning its managers, and paved the way for a predictable government takeover of Russia’s oil industry. Today, it is not so clear what the rules of oil investment are (i.e. no foreigner shall hold majority stock in a Russian oil company), but it is very clear who makes the rules.